The acceleration paradox: shorter journeys, same winners
Economic uncertainty is widely assumed to slow purchasing decisions. The data suggests a different pattern.
“We expected buying journeys to take longer. But the opposite has occurred.”
Many buying processes are indeed postponed or cancelled. However, those that proceed are compressed. When budget and urgency align, buyers move faster.
Buyers now engage vendors at approximately 61% of their journey, about seven weeks earlier than previously. This can make sales cycles appear longer even though the total journey is shorter.
“You do have more time. It’s just not changing your odds.”
The implication is that supplier influence often occurs before direct engagement. For marketing leaders, this shifts focus from pipeline acceleration to pre-journey positioning.
The day-one shortlist: where deals are decided
One of the most consequential findings is the prevalence of the day-one shortlist. On the first day of a buying journey, the average buying group evaluates five vendors and places roughly four on the shortlist immediately.
“They’re going to buy one of those four they put on the shortlist on day one 95% of the time.”
Shortlist decisions are driven primarily by familiarity, prior experience, and organisational trust. In uncertain markets, this behaviour intensifies as buyers make what Cunningham describes as “conservative small-C decisions”.
While 42% of buyers report that personal preferences shift during evaluation, final outcomes rarely change. Perceptions may evolve. Vendor selection typically does not.
The long game for challengers
For suppliers not already on the shortlist, short-term tactics are unlikely to change results.
“You still have to find a way to play the longer game.”
That longer game involves building familiarity before buyers enter market. Effective approaches include:
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Supporting practitioner communities
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Participating in industry conversations
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Partnering with credible voices
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Providing value beyond campaigns
In uncertain economies, attention does not create preference. Participation does. This marks a maturation point for ABM, from account targeting to reputation building within buying networks.
AI’s real role: shaping perception before buying starts
The role of AI in purchasing is often overstated. Research shows 94% of buyers use large language models during research, yet human validation remains central once a purchase process begins. Buyers still review vendor sites, compare options, and verify claims.
The influence of AI is strongest earlier, particularly among out-of-market buyers who are informally learning about categories. In that phase, discovery increasingly happens through AI tools rather than direct vendor interaction.
If a brand is not visible within AI-driven discovery, it risks exclusion from the initial shortlist.
AI is not closing deals. It is shaping consideration.
Europe requires country-level precision
The findings also challenge the assumption that Europe functions as a single buying environment. Country-level differences are material:
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Netherlands: smaller buying groups and shorter cycles
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Belgium: larger groups and longer processes
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Germany: tighter and faster cycles
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United Kingdom: similar to North America but recently more compressed
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Ireland: less dependent on incumbent vendors
These structural variations mean pan-regional strategies carry increasing risk. Precision at country level can provide competitive advantage, particularly when trust and familiarity become more important under economic pressure.
Rethinking the revenue narrative
In growth markets, revenue models often assume a linear process: generate leads, follow up, close deals. In constrained markets, outcomes depend more heavily on structural factors such as:
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Existing brand equity
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Market maturity
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Category position
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Community presence
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AI-mediated perception
Different starting positions require different investment strategies. Established category leaders, new entrants, and category creators face distinct revenue dynamics.
Actionable takeaways
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Shift emphasis from late-stage influence to pre-journey positioning
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Treat brand familiarity as a measurable commercial asset
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Consider AI discoverability a strategic channel
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Localise ABM strategy at country level within Europe
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Align leadership around a broader definition of revenue drivers
“If you’re not on the shortlist on day one, you are out of luck.”
Don’t miss Kerry Cunningham live in Amsterdam
Kerry Cunningham will share practical insights and frameworks for senior B2B leaders seeking to influence buyers earlier, build trust, and adapt ABM strategies in a market shaped by economic uncertainty and AI.
European ABM Forum
Amsterdam
26 March 2026